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Posted 10/31/09: (MOP. from Bob Gillem)

Posted 10/23/09: (Letter from the President, Bob Monroe)

Classmates,

Here's a quick "macro" update on nuclear weapons (NW) issues.

There are many specific NW issues are in play, and the "world without
nuclear weapons" vision of the arms controllers has the potential to
generate major actions of many different types on short notice.  However,
the Administration's actions are focused on two major battles -- the current
one and "the next one."  These are the ones to keep your eyes on.

The current battle is the START Follow-on Treaty with Russia.  The
Administration wants to sign it by Dec 5 (expiration date of START I
treaty).  Originally, this effort was narrowly focused on retaining a
slightly modernized version of START I verification rules; but the Obama
Administration has now expanded it.  They desire START Follow-on to be a
MAJOR force reduction treaty, cutting allowed numbers of both nuclear
warheads and nuclear delivery vehicles.  This expansion has opened Pandora's
Box, enabling the Russians to push for inclusion of myriad other arms
control issues (limits on missile defense, limits on conventional strategic
delivery systems, reductions in reserve nuclear weapons, exclusion of
tactical nuclear weapons, etc.)  A real fight is shaping up between the
Administration and Senate conservatives, who can threaten non-ratification.


The next battle -- which the Administration is already moving on behind the
scenes -- is U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
This treaty would condemn us to living permanently with irrelevant,
deteriorated nuclear weapons and inexperienced nuclear weapons scientists,
engineers, and designers.  The treaty is also totally unverifiable; and it
is so lacking in "test" definitions that the U.S. would be forced out of the
nuclear weapons business, while Russia, China, and others could advance with
few limitations.  Non-ratification of the CTBT is, by far, the single most
important nuclear weapons issue the nation faces.

Since both battles involve treaties, on which the Senate must advise and
consent to ratification, the national leader of those who support a strong
U. S, nuclear deterrent is the Republican Whip, Senator Jon Kyl (AZ).  This
week he weighed in publicly on both battles.  On Monday, Oct 19, he made a
floor statement in the Senate, laying down a marker on many issues involving
the Administration's handling of the START Follow-on Treaty.  Copy attached
(left icon).  On Tuesday, Oct 20, the Wall Street Journal published his
op-ed on why the U.S. should NEVER ratify the CTBT.  Copy attached (right
icon).  I urge you to read both to stay current on these critical national
security issues.

All the best,            

Bob Monroe
rrmonroe@cox.net
703-242-8756
 

Posted 10/01/09:  (A Presentation, by and from Bob Monroe)

Classmates,

I was recently asked to give a presentation on America's nuclear weapons
crisis to a conference of about a thousand in New York.  The principal focus
was the nation's vulnerability to electromagnetic pulse (from detonation of
a single nuclear weapon), which could cause permanent continental shutdown.
I was requested to set the stage for this EMP threat by summarizing our
broader nuclear weapons problems.

I chose to give a 15-minute summary of my recent paper published by the Air
& Space Power Journal, "A Perfect Storm over Nuclear Weapons" (which I sent
you about a month ago).  A copy of this short presentation is attached.

All the best,   

Bob Monroe
rrmonroe@cox.net
703-242-8756

AMERICA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS CRISIS  

Vice Admiral Robert R. Monroe , U.S. Navy (Ret.)    

“Protecting America against Permanent Continental Shutdown from Electromagnetic Pulse”  A National Conference, by EMPACT America, Inc.

  September 8-10, 2009  

                           AMERICA ’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS CRISIS

Each of you here is helping to address an immense threat to America – electromagnetic pulse!  What’s needed is recognition of the danger and action to avert it.  

My role here is not to address EMP, but to alert you to an even broader nuclear weapons danger we face.  The United States is about to lose its nuclear weapons deterrent capability!  You need to understand this background to address EMP effectively.  

America has been in a nuclear weapons freeze for the twenty years since the Cold War ended!  While we’ve been asleep, five interacting challenges have arisen and mushroomed.  Today, in combination, these five threaten to destroy us:  

·        Increasing nuclear weapons threats  

·        Lack of nuclear deterrence strategy  

·        Deteriorated nuclear weapons capabilities  

·        Failure of nuclear nonproliferation, and  

·        Misguided nuclear weapons goals

 I’ll spend a couple of minutes each on these five, then summarize what we should do about them.  

First, the increasing nuclear weapons threats.  These have grown steadily over the past twenty years, but because they’re so different from the global thermonuclear threat of the Cold War they’ve gone virtually unnoticed.  

Russia must increase its nuclear weapons capability, because that is its only basis for being considered a superpower.  Their new military strategy calls for early use of nuclear weapons in all conflicts, large and small.  Russia has preserved thousands of tactical nuclear weapons – unmatched by the U.S. or our allies.  They have a robust, active industrial base for producing nuclear weapons, which we do not.  For two decades they’ve been designing and producing advanced, low-yield nuclear weapons, which we’ve been prohibited from doing.  

China poses a different type of nuclear threat.  It has embarked on a huge strategic modernization program, including greater numbers of advanced, high-yield strategic missiles which can reach the U.S.   It is also developing nuclear anti-ship missiles, in event of a Taiwan confrontation.  

Pakistan is increasing its nuclear weapons – now about 100 – and improving them.  Its political situation is so unstable that some of these could fall into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists.   

North Korea and Iran – rogue states – are on the verge of producing nuclear weapons.  They are well capable of using them, or selling them, or giving them to proxy organizations.  These organizations  – and terrorist groups – are all working ceaselessly to acquire nuclear weapons for use against the U.S.  

In sum, nuclear weapons exist, and they aren’t going away – ever!  There are tens of thousands of them in existence today.  The knowledge of how to build them is available everywhere, and stocks of fissile material are increasing worldwide. 

 The second issue is our lack of nuclear deterrence strategy.  Deterrence is based upon fear!  We alter the behavior of an adversary by threatening him. 

 During the Cold War we prevented Soviet launch of nuclear weapons against us by threatening to destroy the USSR .  It worked flawlessly.  For almost half a century our deterrence strategy was so successful that – despite countless crises and many “hot” wars – not a single nuclear weapon was detonated anywhere.  Our nuclear deterrence was also a major factor in ending the Soviet Union and defeating Communism, without violence.

 Fast-forward to today.  Nuclear deterrence – our strongest foreign policy tool – is nowhere to be found.  What happened?  It was a combination of many things.  We didn’t identify the threats correctly; we didn’t make the tough intellectual effort to totally recast our nuclear deterrence strategy; we were reluctant to threaten adversaries; we didn’t educate the American people about deterrence; we didn’t design, test, and produce new relevant nuclear weapons, and so forth.

 It will take years to rebuild an effective nuclear deterrent strategy, and, regrettably, our leaders show little interest in it.

 The third issue is our deteriorated nuclear weapons capabilities.  It’s hard to know where to begin in describing it.  Our nuclear weapons stockpile is overage and in questionable condition.  It’s also virtually irrelevant, because it’s composed of “massive retaliation” weapons designed for the Cold War. 

 We haven’t designed a new nuclear weapon since the 1980s.  We haven’t built one since the early 1990s.  Most significantly, we haven’t tested one for seventeen years. 

 Our “brain drain” is near-total.  You can count on one hand our scientists and engineers who have designed and tested a weapon, and in a few years all will be gone.  Without testing, their replacements have been inadequately trained; and for almost two decades they’ve also been prohibited from doing advanced weapons  research.     

 Much of our vital nuclear weapons infrastructure -- labs, test facilities, and production plants – is antique and deteriorated.  Our only facility for manufacturing “pits” – the triggers that are the heart of a nuclear weapon – was shut down twenty years ago, and we have not yet started a replacement facility – which will take 15-20 years to build.

 The Department of Defense has disassembled a large portion of its nuclear weapons capability, and accorded scant attention to the remainder.  In particular, their facilities and programs for testing the survivability of U.S. weapons systems against the effects of nuclear weapons are greatly degraded.  This also weakens our response to the EMP threat.

 Most of these weaknesses result, directly or indirectly, from the absence of nuclear testing; and most of them cannot be corrected without resumption of testing.

 The fourth issue is the failure of nuclear nonproliferation.  The proliferation of nuclear weapons is a threat like no other.  It must be prevented, using military force, if necessary.  Yet the international community absolutely refuses to do this.  Even worse, the international community now considers nuclear disarmament as their goal, rather than nonproliferation. 

 This runs directly counter to the Nonproliferation Treaty, which is the cornerstone of the world’s nonproliferation effort.  This treaty, now 39 years old with 189 signatories – establishes a two-tier world for nuclear weapons.  Five nations – the permanent members of the UN Security Council – are approved as nuclear-weapons-states, while the other 184 nations have committed to remain without nuclear weapons.  These two tiers are essential.  Nonproliferation requires enforcement.  The large, responsible nuclear-armed states are the world’s best hope for the future.

 For two decades North Korea and Iran have been advancing steadily towards acquisition of nuclear weapons.  If they are not stopped, they will almost surely cause a cascade of proliferation which will eventually become global, leading to a world of nuclear horror and chaos.     

 The fifth issue is our misguided nuclear weapons goals.  This prospect of worldwide proliferation has so frightened national and international leaders that they have conjured up an impossible vision: “a world without nuclear weapons”! 

 They cannot describe how to get there, or how to remain there when nuclear weapons technology is widely known, or how to verify the absence of nuclear weapons in other nations. 

 But nonetheless our President has established this as a national goal, and he has directed immediate nuclear disarmament actions in the hope of stimulating others to follow. 

 Three of these actions would be immensely damaging to our ability to regain our nuclear deterrent:  major reductions in our stockpile; ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; and denial of any nuclear weapons modernization program.  

 So!  The challenge we face is how to create one recovery program which meets the five interlocking challenges we face.

 ·                    First, let’s don’t make things worse.  Drop the national goal of “a world without nuclear weapons.”  It’s highly unwise for a President to establish a national goal which no one knows how to reach; and it’s even worse to start taking drastic actions to meet it.

 ·                    Second, history shows that nonproliferation requires enforcement, and it simply must be done.  Ideally, this would become the collegial responsibility of the five nuclear-weapons-states -- and the world may eventually evolve to this.  But for now, the U.S. must take the lead.  North Korea and Iran must be stopped, by military force if necessary.  The moment either North Korea ’s or Iran ’s drive to produce nuclear weapons is stopped, a whole new world will emerge, and proliferation threats will disappear.

 ·                    Third, reestablish nuclear deterrence as a powerful foreign policy and national security tool.

 ·                    Fourth, rebuild our nuclear weapons capability.  Terminate our unilateral nuclear test moratorium and commence modernizing the stockpile with new, relevant weapons.

 ·                    Finally, in a proliferation-free world, and with only eight states possessing nuclear weapons, lead the world into responsible multilateral nuclear arms control.  Reduce arsenals progressively, maintaining stability, and ensuring that the five nuclear weapons states have the nuclear capability to maintain order.

 A national debate on these issues is long overdue!

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